The FDA announced that for the coming flu season, the flu shot will be made up of three new flu strains: Brisbane/10, a version of the H3N2 flu; a second new Type A strain known as H1N1/Brisbane/59, and a newer Type B/Florida strain. The reason is that this year's vaccine has proven to be only 40 percent effective, rather than the 70 percent to 90 percent that is more usual.

Since it takes a long time to create a flu vaccine, scientists have to make their best risk estimate of what next season's predominant viruses are going to be nine months in advance. Most times, they get it right, but sometimes not, like this year.

The flu virus strain currently most prevalent in the United States is the influenza A H3N2 strain, which unfortunately is not a strain included in this flu season's vaccine. Also, this year's vaccine is not well-matched against influenza Type B.

Making matters a bit worse is that so far, the CDC has found that 8.1 percent of the influenza type A viruses it tested were resistant to the anti-viral drug Tamiflu. Previously, less than 1 percent had shown any resistance.

While the poor match of this year's vaccine against the existing flu strains has caused some consternation, what has surprised and sparked an increased level of concern is that only a few weeks ago, the CDC thought it was going to be a mild flu season. However, as of early February, 44 out of the 50 states are reporting widespread flu activity. The rapid increase in flu activity is unusual, as is the breath of the outbreak of flu activity. Typically, flu spreads slowly across the country; this year, it appeared to pop up across the country almost simultaneously. Also of concern is that the flu viruses seemed to have mutated a bit more quickly than expected as well.

One final worry is that given that there are three new strains to be included in next season's vaccine, there may be a shortage of vaccine or that the vaccine will not be available in quantity until the season is well underway, which has happened in previous years. Remember 2004 and the vaccine shortage panic? Better be prepared for a repeat performance (although other health care professionals are worried that people won't get flu shots next season because of this year's poor results.)

While the concern over a bird-flu pandemic has abated and so have the pressing needs for developing contingency plans, this year's flu season is a powerful reminder why such plans need to be constantly updated and tested.

Maybe Congress needs to rethink its major budget cuts in this area.