
About a year or so ago a poster designed by Milton Glazer began appearing on the sides of telephone booths in Manhattan. It featured a hand, the fingers of which displayed the colors of the world’s races. The title of the poster was "We are all African." The brilliance of its design evoked the factual knowledge that we all have evolved from the African continent and the emotional truth that we are all our brother’s keeper. Its intent was to encourage people to become involved in fighting world poverty.
But there is now another way that “we are all Africans,” and it is one that is increasingly uncomfortable and increasingly impossible to ignore. It is the story of interest rates and the management of risk.
In the 1970s, loans were made to African nations on a bilateral basis (country to country), a multilateral basis (IMF, World Bank, etc.) and via private banks. Very little of this money reached the people who were supposed to benefit and in due course, additional loans were provided to pay for the original ones. Research done at the London School of Economics by Professor Gavin Capps details the resulting problem. Between 1990 and 2002, $540 billion in loans were made to Sub Saharan Africa and $550 billion in payments were made to the lenders leaving an interest balance of $245 billion.
During this time, the IMF and World Bank instituted “austerity programs” and required debtor nations to comply as a condition of renegotiating further loans. These austerity programs have resulted in massive layoffs, sharp reductions in credit, higher interest rates, cuts in spending on health and education and currency devaluation. On its face, these programs result in the inability to create and maintain an educated workforce that could expand the economy and reduce the debt. The efforts of Bono and others to “forgive” these debts is really a negotiation about the rate of interest – the principal has long since been repaid.
So how is this analogous to the industrialized western nations? In addition to the sub-prime crisis that is fueled by ballooning interest rates on home mortgages, Fortune magazine reported in October of last year that credit card debt in the United States is $915 billion. The interest charged on this debt is anywhere from 7 percent to 36 percent. The federal laws against usury were repealed during the Depression and some states (notably South Dakota where many banks have relocated their credit card businesses) have no laws at all – so the sky is the limit as far as the amount of interest and fees that can be charged.
On the federal level, our national debt is $9.4 trillion. In 2006, the interest payment on a lower level of debt was $406 billion – the same year that we spent $15 billion on education. Internationally, the British hold more personal debt that their counterparts in the United States, and, according to Alan Greenspan last week, Spain has a proportionally larger real estate bubble than the United States. Debt on a national and personal level in the industrialized West is so high that it seems to defy a solution.
Interest has been justified as the cost of capital. There’s the opportunity cost (if the money is loaned to A it can’t be loaned to B or invested in C) and the operational cost (processing the loan, collecting the payments, etc.) – and then there is the risk factor. International standards, such as Basle II, require financial institutions to allocate capital to a reserve account. The amount depends on the level of confidence that the loans will be repaid or the investment will reap benefits. The riskier the counterparty, the greater the capital reserve.
In credit cards and adjustable rate mortgages, the principal has been redefined in a way that seems counterintuitive. The riskier a customer you are, the higher interest rate you must pay. If you become riskier still (by not paying on time) your interest rate increases. At some point you will default, probably after you have run through your savings. The entries on your credit report will then effectively take you out of the pool of potential customers for the bank. And then perhaps you will think about how we all wagged our heads and shook our fingers at those African nations that couldn’t pay their debts. The process to insolvency is surely different, but the result is the same.
And what did we get for all this debt? Better schools? We were ranked 18th out of 24 industrialized countries in 2004. Better health care system? We are 37th – just ahead of Slovenia. Better infrastructure? We have 30,000 bridges and tunnels with a failing safety rating of 50 (out of 100) or less. The CIA fact book lists us as the most indebted nation in the world.
There does not seem to be any signs that the financial system is addressing the issue. The past week has been filled with banks and investment houses buying each other's debt offerings or taking ownership percentages in return for equity. The stock market is up. Perhaps Bear Stearns will be the only casualty. My grandmother would describe that as "whistling past the graveyard."
There is no question that we are far, far better off than our African counterparts, but there also is no question that our indebtedness and the associated interest costs are going to have a very corrosive effect on our standard of living and our way of life. Clarity on how we got to where we are is essential in developing a solution. Left to their own devices, people will have no choice but to default. That’s what has already happened in the subprime market and what could very well happen with home equity loans, automobile loans and credit card debt. The burden has just become too great for too many people.
Risk used to be defined by the likelihood of success. Now it is defined as the likelihood of failure. That definition is a self-fulfilling prophesy. Unfortunately, it seems likely that we will have to experience a bit more of the crushing effects of pervasive debt and higher and higher interest rates before we come to our senses.
This is very profound. I categorize the upside of Africa by using the term From Blood To Diamonds.
But as you indicate here the uS may be moving further away from helping the continent receive their diamonds (just reward) due to the blood shed in Iraq and our rising domestic economic woes.
Keep me posted.
www.kdm-assoc.com
One only needs to analyze and understand beyond their nose. The rich are getting richer, the poor are getting poorer, and the middle class is sliding. The rich get richer by design. They don't get richer by hap stance. This great country no longer has products to sell to the world. We now import our necessities, import our labor, and export our wheat. We send our children to college with the hopes of a good future and income but, for most college educated children moving back home has become necessary. It's suggested that we are a service oriented nation. What are the services this nation provides beyond the borders? In bad times, the service industry in this country hurts. Our education system is failing, our infrastructure is falling apart, we have the highest level of incarceration in the world our money is being devalued throughout the world and although there are ways multiple ways that exist that will minimize the energy usage (oil) the interest groups make it appear that studies and inventions are necessary to get there. This once country was once perceived as the leader in morality, ethics, education, development, production and inventions. Can we say this at this point in time? I am proud and lucky to be an American. I believe this country can turn around and again be all that it can and should be once we see beyond our nose.
L | Friday, April 11, 2008 | 8:42 AMAgree with original post and comments.
I am 27, and I assume that my grandparents and great-grandparents are saying 'I told you so! Don't buy what you can't afford.' I guess that is a good rule for families and for nations. Luckily the free market will fix itself if it is allowed to be truly free. More government tinkering will just prolong the slide.
As a farm loan manager for FSA I see the results of easy credit every day. I highly recommend David Ramseys program. It can be checked out at DaveRamsey.com. He has a structured program for getting out of debt and being debt free. He also has a radio program on XM channel 165 Check it out if you are in over your head with debt. By the way he and I agree that the rest of us need not to bail out the subprime mortgage people. It is a case of stupid lenders loaning to stupid people-let them take their lumps. After all it is only 5% of the mortgage industry and has been blown out of proportion in relation to its effect on the overall economy.
Neal Galloway | Thursday, April 10, 2008 | 9:06 AM